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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | |
| 2 | Florida | |
| 3 | Cincinnati | |
| 4 | TCU | |
| 5 | Texas | |
| 6 | Georgia Tech | 3 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh | 3 |
| 8 | Boise State | 2 |
| 9 | Oregon | 2 |
| 10 | Miami (Florida) | 7 |
| 11 | Iowa | 3 |
| 12 | Southern Cal | 1 |
| 13 | LSU | 1 |
| 14 | Arizona | |
| 15 | Houston | |
| 16 | Ohio State | 4 |
| 17 | Stanford | |
| 18 | Virginia Tech | 2 |
| 19 | Oklahoma State | 4 |
| 20 | Penn State | 7 |
| 21 | Oregon State | |
| 22 | South Florida | |
| 23 | Utah | 4 |
| 24 | Clemson | |
| 25 | Wisconsin | 1 |
| Last week’s ballot | ||
Entries categorized as ‘Blogpoll’
My blogpoll ballot: week ten
November 11, 2009 · 1 Comment
Categories: Blogpoll
My blogpoll ballot: week nine
November 4, 2009 · Leave a Comment
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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | |
| 2 | Florida | |
| 3 | Cincinnati | 1 |
| 4 | TCU | 1 |
| 5 | Texas | 1 |
| 6 | Boise State | 3 |
| 7 | Oregon | 3 |
| 8 | Iowa | 1 |
| 9 | Georgia Tech | 2 |
| 10 | Pittsburgh | 3 |
| 11 | Southern Cal | 8 |
| 12 | LSU | |
| 13 | Penn State | 3 |
| 14 | Arizona | 7 |
| 15 | Houston | 7 |
| 16 | Virginia Tech | 8 |
| 17 | Miami (Florida) | 3 |
| 18 | Oklahoma | |
| 19 | Utah | |
| 20 | Ohio State | |
| 21 | California | 2 |
| 22 | South Florida | |
| 23 | Oklahoma State | 8 |
| 24 | Wisconsin | |
| 25 | West Virginia | 8 |
| Last week’s ballot | ||
It’s mostly a crapshoot after the top ten or so.
Iowa’s win over Indiana last week was telling. It hurt Iowa’s SOS, but I’m not going to hold an early scare against the Hawkeyes. That happens all the time, and the yardage disparity in that one shows how much better Iowa was.
Rutgers is even getting a few votes now in some ballots, although I’m not ready to go that far yet. The SOS is really bad, and the offense has shown little in terms of an ability to consistently sustain drives. As awesome as Savage’s TD pass to Brown was, most of the time, you don’t win games at the last minute. That’s not generally a good formula for victory.
Categories: Blogpoll
Can SOS be misleading?
October 28, 2009 · 1 Comment
One of my Sunday rituals is to take a gander at the latest Sagarin ratings (and similar statistical offerings) before submitting my draft blogpoll ballot. According to the latest iteration, Rutgers comes in at #68 in the country based on what they’ve accomplished to this point, having played the #140 schedule in the country.
I’m not trying to posit that Rutgers has played particularly well to this point, as they haven’t. However, I think there is a bit of a quirk in these computer polls that can distort the picture of everything that’s going on, to some extent.
As an example, let’s compare the schedules to this point of Rutgers and USF. They were chosen because both have a win over an ACC team, and have played similarly bad schedules, featuring two FCS teams.
Rutgers
(8) Cincinnati L 47-15
(228) Howard W 45-7
(135) FIU W 23-15
(115) @Maryland W 34-15
(196) Texas Southern W 36-0
(18) Pittsbugh L 24-17
(144) @Army W 27-10
USF
(187) Wofford W 40-7
(178) @Western Kentucky W 35-13
(212) Charleston Southern 59-0
(44) @Florida State W 17-7
(100) @Syracuse W 34-20
(8) Cincinnati L 34-17
(18) @Pittsburgh L 41-14
Rutgers and USF have played fairly comparable schedules up to this point. Rutgers had the worse loss to Cincy, but keep in mind that Tony Pike missed most of the second half of that game, and that Dom Natale’s turnover meltdown sent the opener out of hand. In comparison, Rutgers looked far, far more competitive against Pitt. Based on the more-recent history, Rutgers is the better team right now.
As far as I can tell, what’s really skewing the Sagarin ratings are the fact that FSU is ranked much more highly than Maryland is. However, I’m not that sure if there’s that much of a wide gulf between the teams. Maryland narrowly lost to MTSU, while FSU pulled away from Jacksonville State late. A few bounces here and there, and both games turn on their heads. At some point, there is a lower boundary or floor with poor teams. Alabama would beat #80 about as bad as #200.
The purpose of this post isn’t to rail against computer rating systems. I think that they’re actually far more accurate than human polls, even if each still has its own particular blend of oddities and eccentricities. By the end of the season, with the benefit of a larger, more accurate sample size, everything should look a lot more intuitive. However, these current results are very difficult to square with what’s actually going on in games at the moment. USF may have the better resume to this point, but they’re not 32 rankings and 7 points on a neutral field better.
Which is, not to single out USF, although I love picking on their program at times. At the moment, all human and computer polls have their share of strange, unintuitive results. We’ll just have to wait until the end of the season, and see how everything plays out to know where exactly the chips fall.
Categories: Big East Conference · Blogpoll · Rutgers Football
My blogpoll ballot: week eight
October 28, 2009 · 2 Comments
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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | |
| 2 | Florida | |
| 3 | Southern Cal | |
| 4 | Cincinnati | 1 |
| 5 | TCU | 1 |
| 6 | Texas | 1 |
| 7 | Iowa | 5 |
| 8 | Virginia Tech | 2 |
| 9 | Boise State | 1 |
| 10 | Oregon | 1 |
| 11 | Georgia Tech | 2 |
| 12 | LSU | 2 |
| 13 | Pittsburgh | 2 |
| 14 | Miami (Florida) | 5 |
| 15 | Oklahoma State | 1 |
| 16 | Penn State | 3 |
| 17 | West Virginia | 4 |
| 18 | Oklahoma | |
| 19 | Utah | 3 |
| 20 | Ohio State | 4 |
| 21 | Arizona | |
| 22 | Houston | |
| 23 | California | |
| 24 | South Carolina | 4 |
| 25 | Central Michigan | 2 |
| Last week’s ballot | ||
Screw it. I don’t care that people get hung up on Oklahoma’s W/L record. Last week’s throttling of Kansas proved their case. Kansas had a somewhat good record, but lost to a bad Colorado team, and had really beaten nobody. Oklahoma didn’t have quality wins either, but their losses did all come to good teams. Can anyone really make the case that say, Notre Dame, is a better team when they haven’t looked all that good (outside of USC) without Michael Floyd?
I think we’re also getting to the point of the season where head to head wins remain important, but are starting to be trumped by a total body of work. One-game mishaps happen. Sometimes the matchups aren’t in a team’s favor.
Iowa remains a tricky, tricky case. Their out of conference SOS is surprisingly excellent, although inflated by the flukey success of Iowa State. That’s counterbalanced by the horrific Big Ten. Iowa is winning a lot of games on the margins, but their offense isn’t that good, and I’m not convinced that their turnover rate is sustainable. Rutgers can build up a reserve there when beating up on Howard and Texas Southern. It’s harder against semi-difficult competition. Can Ohio State just beat them already to end this silly debate? I think the Hawkeyes were pretty good last year, but are defanged without some critical personnel losses, and their quarterback has regressed too.
Still, on the other hand, it’s difficult to keep them below the likes of Florida and Texas. If both end up undefeated, I may very well have Iowa jump the Horns by season’s end. Still think that Cincy and TCU are better though, not to mention SC.
Categories: Blogpoll
My blogpoll ballot: week seven
October 21, 2009 · 2 Comments
Forgot to post this earlier. Didn’t really have time to look it over too closely.
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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | |
| 2 | Florida | |
| 3 | Southern Cal | |
| 4 | TCU | |
| 5 | Cincinnati | |
| 6 | Virginia Tech | |
| 7 | Texas | |
| 8 | Boise State | 1 |
| 9 | Miami (Florida) | 1 |
| 10 | LSU | 3 |
| 11 | Oregon | |
| 12 | Iowa | 4 |
| 13 | Georgia Tech | 6 |
| 14 | Oklahoma State | |
| 15 | Pittsburgh | 6 |
| 16 | Ohio State | 4 |
| 17 | Texas Tech | |
| 18 | South Florida | 8 |
| 19 | Penn State | 1 |
| 20 | South Carolina | 6 |
| 21 | West Virginia | |
| 22 | Utah | 2 |
| 23 | Central Michigan | |
| 24 | Auburn | 2 |
| 25 | Oregon State | |
| Last week’s ballot | ||
Categories: Blogpoll
My blogpoll ballot: week six
October 14, 2009 · 1 Comment
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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | |
| 2 | Florida | 1 |
| 3 | Southern Cal | 1 |
| 4 | TCU | 1 |
| 5 | Cincinnati | 1 |
| 6 | Virginia Tech | 1 |
| 7 | Texas | 5 |
| 8 | Miami (Florida) | 1 |
| 9 | Boise State | 4 |
| 10 | South Florida | 1 |
| 11 | Oregon | 3 |
| 12 | Ohio State | |
| 13 | LSU | 5 |
| 14 | South Carolina | 3 |
| 15 | Oklahoma | 1 |
| 16 | Iowa | 1 |
| 17 | Nebraska | 4 |
| 18 | Penn State | |
| 19 | Georgia Tech | 4 |
| 20 | Utah | |
| 21 | Pittsburgh | 1 |
| 22 | Auburn | 12 |
| 23 | Houston | |
| 24 | Brigham Young | |
| 25 | Oregon State | |
| Last week’s ballot | ||
I toyed with going full-on resume ranking this week (for instance, Wisconsin has a stronger resume than PSU), but didn’t have time to get all the kinks out. Definitely feeling the hate for Texas though. Way to play an atrocious OOC schedule year after year.
I’m not comfortable with any of these after Oregon. Once again, don’t pay attention to the arrows, I don’t take into account last week’s ballot and am ranking based off team strength and total resume (with heavy weight to SOS).
Categories: Blogpoll
My blogpoll ballot: week five
October 7, 2009 · 3 Comments
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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | |
| 2 | Texas | 1 |
| 3 | Florida | 1 |
| 4 | Southern Cal | |
| 5 | TCU | |
| 6 | Cincinnati | 1 |
| 7 | Virginia Tech | 1 |
| 8 | LSU | 7 |
| 9 | Miami (Florida) | 10 |
| 10 | Auburn | 12 |
| 11 | South Florida | 3 |
| 12 | Ohio State | 3 |
| 13 | Boise State | 2 |
| 14 | Oregon | 2 |
| 15 | Iowa | 5 |
| 16 | Oklahoma | 4 |
| 17 | South Carolina | 3 |
| 18 | Penn State | 5 |
| 19 | Stanford | |
| 20 | Pittsburgh | |
| 21 | Nebraska | |
| 22 | Arizona | |
| 23 | Georgia Tech | |
| 24 | Wisconsin | |
| 25 | Missouri | |
| Last week’s ballot | ||
We’re far enough into the season where I’m trying to resume rank as much as I can. If only teams like UF that have played nobody would cooperate, schedule-wise. As always, I don’t remotely care about week to week consistency.
Given that the Pac 10 is the #2 conference by Sagarin, I’m fine with ranking Stanford and Zona. By the way, the Big Ten sucks. Pass it on.
Categories: Blogpoll
My blogpoll ballot: week four
September 30, 2009 · 1 Comment
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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | |
| 2 | Florida | 1 |
| 3 | Texas | 1 |
| 4 | Southern Cal | 2 |
| 5 | TCU | 7 |
| 6 | Virginia Tech | 5 |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 1 |
| 8 | Houston | 2 |
| 9 | Ohio State | |
| 10 | Iowa | |
| 11 | Boise State | 8 |
| 12 | Oklahoma | 4 |
| 13 | Penn State | 6 |
| 14 | South Florida | |
| 15 | LSU | 5 |
| 16 | Oregon | |
| 17 | Georgia | 1 |
| 18 | California | 13 |
| 19 | Miami (Florida) | 15 |
| 20 | South Carolina | |
| 21 | Nebraska | 3 |
| 22 | Auburn | 3 |
| 23 | Georgia Tech | 2 |
| 24 | Oklahoma State | 10 |
| 25 | Missouri | 2 |
| Last week’s ballot | ||
See you later, Ole Miss. With a bad taste in my mouth, I moved them up last week by default. They have literally done nothing at this point to deserve any ranking.
Regression to the mean is a wonderful thing. As always, I rank based on overall resumes, not overweighing one particular week. For instance, I don’t see four teams better than USC. I’m much lower on LSU than most polls. I like their roster, but they aren’t playing like a top ten team to this point.
With the season sample size getting bigger, it’s getting slightly easier to put together a coherent ranking, although all the upsets don’t help. Nice to see the Big East making a little noise however.
Categories: Blogpoll
Blogpoll: week three
September 23, 2009 · 3 Comments
My insane, unjustifiable ballot that I didn’t spend nearly enough time on.
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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 3 |
| 2 | Texas | |
| 3 | Florida | 2 |
| 4 | Miami (Florida) | 13 |
| 5 | California | |
| 6 | Southern Cal | 3 |
| 7 | Penn State | 1 |
| 8 | Cincinnati | 1 |
| 9 | Ohio State | 2 |
| 10 | Houston | 2 |
| 11 | Virginia Tech | 1 |
| 12 | TCU | 9 |
| 13 | Mississippi | 5 |
| 14 | Oklahoma State | |
| 15 | Brigham Young | 9 |
| 16 | Oklahoma | 9 |
| 17 | North Carolina | 2 |
| 18 | Georgia | 2 |
| 19 | Boise State | 4 |
| 20 | LSU | 2 |
| 21 | Georgia Tech | 8 |
| 22 | Kansas | 2 |
| 23 | Missouri | |
| 24 | Nebraska | |
| 25 | Auburn | |
| Last week’s ballot | ||
Categories: Blogpoll
Blogpoll: week two
September 16, 2009 · Leave a Comment
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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida | |
| 2 | Texas | |
| 3 | Southern Cal | |
| 4 | Alabama | |
| 5 | California | 5 |
| 6 | Brigham Young | |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 1 |
| 8 | Penn State | 4 |
| 9 | Cincinnati | |
| 10 | Virginia Tech | 1 |
| 11 | Ohio State | 12 |
| 12 | Houston | |
| 13 | Georgia Tech | |
| 14 | Oklahoma State | 9 |
| 15 | Boise State | |
| 16 | Georgia | 2 |
| 17 | Miami (Florida) | |
| 18 | Mississippi | |
| 19 | North Carolina | 3 |
| 20 | Oregon State | 1 |
| 21 | TCU | 3 |
| 22 | LSU | 3 |
| 23 | Missouri | 16 |
| 24 | Kansas | 4 |
| 25 | Michigan | |
| Last week’s ballot | ||
.
Don’t be as concerned with movement from week to week as the overall rankings.
Categories: Blogpoll

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