Bet they could still beat Notre Dame

Late breaking Twitter news last night: injured Syracuse DT Arthur Jones will miss the remainder of this season, his final year of eligibility. That’s some serious, biblical-level torture, although it was partially inevitable on a roster with little in the way of depth to begin with.

And to think, I thought my only comment on the Cuse today would be to mention ESPN’s dastardly decision to not let SNY (and other conference affiliates) air the game, instead exclusively limiting it to their 360 online service. Dare I ask why on earth SNY and/or the Big East ever agreed to contracts that didn’t stipulate on this, or say, filming games in HD? Can our media expert Tim Pernetti please look over the next TV contract before it’s signed? Not to mention, my provider Comcast added 360 this year to their lineup, and ESPN turns around and takes programming away from one of their properties. This can’t go on.

The USF Bulls have a propensity to run their mouths. Have to say though, even though he’s a numbskull, these comments by Kion Wilson were accurate.

“Their offensive line had extremely a lot of hype going into the game, but they’re second in the Big East in giving up sacks,”  Wilson said. “They don’t handle stunts and pressure very well, so hopefully Coach (defensive coordinator Joe) Tresey will be aggressive with the play-calling, and have our defensive line do a lot of stunting and a lot of blitzing and hopefully we’ll be able to get pressure on the quarterback.”

May not have been the brightest thing to say though, with the way Mr. Invisible has been playing at right end as of late. Although, Anthony Davis has had his own nasty habit of daydreaming about future paychecks this year. At least he’s smart enough to not suggest that Selvie is anything less than an elite player.

Speaking of the whole “revenge” factor that was also mentioned, why is it that the league’s worst gameday coaches seem to emphasize that the most? Jim Leavitt should spend less time acting like a clown on the sidelines, and more managing the clock.

It’s interesting that the Memphis athletic department is so determined to jump to the Big East, given that their football program is in shambles, and just fired their coach yesterday. Don’t really see how they end up a viable candidate any time soon, no matter who is the next hire. The same goes for other the C-USA also-rans. Honestly, Temple looks like the best choice out there for an expansion candidate. I’ve thought that for some time. Before writing a detailed post about it, I wanted to wait for them to actually turn the corner. Now it’ll hinge on keeping HC Al Golden in place, who’d make a lot of sense at Maryland or UVA next year. I’m really hoping that Virginia passes on the NJ native for someone like a Mike London.

What’s the opposite of a pyrrhic victory?

Is there any doubt remaining that Pittsburgh is going to rip Notre Dame to shreds next Saturday?

Sad thing is, if the Gator Bowl has any say about it, they’d still prefer to take the Irish over the Panthers. ND is like an unwanted houseguest that just won’t take a hint. I cannot comprehend their appeal on any level, but that appeal still exists nonetheless.

Which, has to be scaring the living daylights out of the Cincinnati athletic department right now. Jon Gruden and Skip Holtz may have the more obvious ties to South Bend, but it’s increasingly looking like a matter of when, and not if, Brian Kelly will replace Charlie Weis at the helm of the program.

Kelly may talk up the Bearcats to the press, but sports are driven by the bottom line, and college football is no exception. Turning down a Washington may be one thing, but will he be able to say no to Notre Dame and their NBC megabucks when UC is still dragging their feet on promised facility improvements?

But the stadium hurdle will be huge. UC has had a difficult time raising the $13.5 million to $15 million needed for the practice fields. The challenge of raising $50 million to $100 million or more for a stadium renovation looms as a daunting one.

Asked about the stadium Friday, new UC president Greg Williams spoke only in generalities.

“I’m exploring a lot of options,” Williams said.”

Knightly News

There was an absolutely wonderful article on the Rutgers/Princeton game in 1869 in Friday’s Wall Street Journal. The entire piece is recommended reading, but if there’s one vital paragraph, it’s probably the following.

Baseball historians have never been able to agree on the “first” baseball game, but most football historians are on comfortable turf in pinpointing the start of their game with Rutgers-Princeton in 1869. Some have called that contest “primitive football,” some describe it as “primitive soccer,” and still others as “nascent rugby.” In truth, claims can be made for all these descriptions. But as Bob Boyles, co-author of the USA Today College Football Encyclopedia, says: “There are a great many traditions that started on that field in New Brunswick. The kicking factor, the goal posts, the physical contact—the men allowed to run ‘interference,’ an early term for what we call blocking—that pull that game towards the direction of American football and away from soccer or rugby.”

Last week, Beat Visitor posted the exact text of the original 1869 report in the Targum about the game.

I thought that two conference games on Saturday (excepting the Pitt-SU blowout) were rather interesting, for different reasons. Despite starting a 5′7 walk-on at QB, Louisville kept things close at West Virginia. The prime time game between UConn and Cincy was much more exciting. Statistically, Cincy should have won big, but UConn arguably benefitted from a little luck for once. I think that game showed that they’re a pretty good team, and should have a better record than 4-5. Cincy, of course, is very good. However, I’m not completely sold on the Bearcat defense. They’re overrated a bit based on the opener, which had plenty to do with poor personnel and gameplanning on the Rutgers side of things.

Honestly, I’m not sure exactly where to begin with Brett McMurphy’s interview with BE commissioner John Marinatto from last week. What’s the purpose of a quote like this?

The costs of travel could become such that an Eastern school that’s now in a non-Eastern quote-unquote conference might want to look [and think] ‘it makes more sense to be in the Big East.’ There could be a shifting around.

There is no Moise Plancher

there is only, generic_USF_tailback. None of those guys have really stood out to this point, and that’s an underreported aspect that I’d like to briefly consider.

When it comes to next week’s game between Rutgers and USF, a lot of attention, quite rightly, is being placed on freshman QB B.J. Daniels. He’s the Bulls’ leading rusher, which is as much a testament to his prowess as an indictment some some combination of their playcalling and/or depth chart. If you think the Rutgers committee hasn’t looked impressive, check out what USF has mustered in the ground. It’s strange, considering that you’d think with a freshman QB, the Bulls would lean more on the running game.

True, the senior Plancher did play well against West Virginia, but that’s after not seeing many touches since their game against Western Kentucky. They’ve had some injuries on their offensive line too. How come they haven’t had a feature back since Andre Hall skipped town four years ago, though? A reliance on a scrambling QB is part of that; you could just as easily say Hall only saw so many carries because Pat Julmiste was just that bad.

A lot of observers, including myself, were really impressed with backup Mike Ford’s combination of size and athleticism. The dreaded two Is – injuries and inconsistency, have largely held back Ford up to this point. He’s a guy you want to file away for the future, as a textbook example of a prospect the New  York Giants could pluck out of obscurity and turn into their next feature back. Ford hasn’t shown all that much as of late, with freshman Lindsey Lamar pushing for more touches.

Scrambling’s fine, but it is an invitation to get your quarterback hit. Not having an effective, traditional running game does make the Bulls somewhat one-dimensional, and I think that’s to our advantage on Thursday. They’re like a far, far more talented FIU in that respect.

The Invisible Man

Today marks the official start of USF week. Between my frequent criticisms of George Selvie and Jim Leavitt (Matt Grothe too, if last year’s human interception machine didn’t get an early start on his prep for next year’s CFL draft), the Bulls take more heat here than any other Big East conference team. Now, their players are accusing Rutgers of running up the score (well, the same guy who said that last year), and vowing to embarrass the Knights at home.

Leavitt is an absolutely terrible coach, but Selvie is the biggest target of my ire. People are starting to acknowledge at this point that, opposite impact JUCO transfer Jason Pierre-Paul, there are no excuses left for why Selvie only has (statistical caveats aside) 3 sacks on the year. Is George Selvie a has-been? In fact, it’s more accurate to say that he was a never-was.

Rutgers fans have never bought into the hype with Selvie, and for good reason. In three years, he’s made a grand total of one memorable play against the Knights, coming with fooling Anthony Davis on a stunt in last years game. I wish I could take credit for being the first to see that the emperor had no clothes, but all I really did was codify the long-held conventional wisdom of Scarlet Nation.

George Selvie was and remains an absolute, incontrovertible fraud; a one trick pony who put up a single flukey season of gaudy statistics against hapless OOC opponents (counting a horrific pass protector in Auburn’s King Dunlap). Against Elon and 2007 North Carolina, Selvie looked good. Everyone else, not so much. His numerous accolades solely the result of the groupthink consensus of people who had not actually bothered to watch his play. Should our players who compiled gaudy numbers against the likes of Texas Southern and Howard get to be All-Americans too? That’s ludicrous; without an adequate OOC schedule, they should only be judged by the results of conference play.

This argument isn’t that Selvie is solely lacking talent, although I have found myself continually lowering his ceiling. He’s a nice speed rusher, but nowhere near the level of difference-making defender that he was sold as. Selvie isn’t going to be a first round pick, he shouldn’t be the conference player of the year, and he doesn’t even have much of a case to make any all-Big East team. Despite the continued existence of Notre Dame and the Big Ten conference, I’m wondering if he’s not the most overrated (i.e., a subjective judgment, not an indictment of base talent) player in the country.

Could Rutgers lose to USF next Thursday? Certainly, for a variety of reasons. I’m scared to death of JPP matched up against Kevin Haslam. The Rutgers offensive line is playing poorly, but if they lose to the Bulls, I’m confident in predicting that it won’t be because of Selvie.

Otto, step back from the ledge

Ah, November. With two months of play now in the books and consistituting a (relatively) adequate sample size, all the random statistical noise is largely fading away, and teams around the country are starting to show and revert to their true colors. Rutgers isn’t where they need to be just yet, but is steadily getting there. It’s no surprise, given recent history. Nor is the acute slide of of Syracuse over the past several weeks. It’s who we are, and that’s who they are right now. Any peculiar, ashistorical talk about somehow reinstituting the latter’s 90’s-decade superiority was just that; pharmacologically-induced talk.

By now, most readers are probably familiar with yesterday’s announcement that receiver Mike Williams quit the Syracuse football team. Between that loss, recent lousy attendance, and a very public quarterback controversy, the mood yesterday in Orangeland was predictably glum.

Should it be though? For one thing, by managing to beat Akron, Syracuse and Doug Marrone have managed to accomplish something that Greg Robinson couldn’t in 2008. The Orange showed some competitive fire in September, but have been slowly beaten down over the course of the past two months, the rigors of time exposing their brutal lack of depth on both sides of the ball; not to mention, athleticism and experience.

All That Jazz

On paper, evaluating the loss of Jasper Howard is relatively straight forward. He was apparently replaced in the lineup by a freshman. How will that player perform? Secondly, are there any similar cases of players losing teams to tragic deaths during the season? For instance, take the most immediately salient example of Miami’s Bryan Pata from back in 2006. Miami proceeded to lose its next two games on the road, before winning its next game at the Orange Bowl.

There’s certainly an emotive aspect this coming game, although I think it will be difficult to quantify. Certainly, everyone expects the home crowd in Storrs to be a proverbial “twelth man”. There can be a downside to that, however; fall down a little early, start pressing, and just exacerbate your mistakes. UConn was on the road in Morgantown last Saturday, but this example isn’t that far-fetched, considering that’s exactly what they did against West Virginia. UConn gained far more total yardage in that game, but gave it away on turnovers and miscues.

Not that I necessarily believe this will happen, but suppose the Huskies are so overcome with grief that they come out listless and flat? What if Tim Brown and Antonio Lowery (who were personal friends of Howard’s) step up their games to an even higher level? All in all, this factor isn’t easy to predict, and has a lot of morbid connotations. My preference is to analyze the game based solely on on-field factors.

I’m also not looking forward to the post-game headlines. Regardless of the outcome, any result will be directly attributed to the Howard factor. It completely removes any notion of agency, and that could not be more misleading. With all due respect to Howard, who fell in a senseless, unspeakable tragedy, the Huskies do have to pick themselves up and play another game on Saturday. The game will be won or lost based on personnel, schemes, and yes, a little bit of luck. It’s more than a little disingenuous to deny credit or blame to specific individuals, and the various causal factors at play. If UConn wins, it’s to honor Howard. If UConn loses, it’s because they were emotionally drained and whatnot. No! The game will be won or lost based on which team ends up making more plays.

In fact, I’d like to think that if Howard was indeed as reputable and dignified as all available information indicates that he was, that his spirit of competitiveness would want all the players involved to give their all, and win or lose the game on the merits. That’s how I want to remember Jazz Howard. Not as a victim, or a rallying cry soaked with implications of regret and loss. As a (somehow, all the usual, cliched combat-related football nouns seem wildly inappropriate and non-fitting) talented player who more than earned all of his accomplishments. It’s not asking for all that much for his surviving peers to be granted that same level of honor and dignity.

Can SOS be misleading?

One of my Sunday rituals is to take a gander at the latest Sagarin ratings (and similar statistical offerings) before submitting my draft blogpoll ballot. According to the latest iteration, Rutgers comes in at #68 in the country based on what they’ve accomplished to this point, having played the #140 schedule in the country.

I’m not trying to posit that Rutgers has played particularly well to this point, as they haven’t. However, I think there is a bit of a quirk in these computer polls that can distort the picture of everything that’s going on, to some extent.

As an example, let’s compare the schedules to this point of Rutgers and USF. They were chosen because both have a win over an ACC team, and have played similarly bad schedules, featuring two FCS teams.

Rutgers

(8) Cincinnati L 47-15
(228) Howard W 45-7
(135) FIU W 23-15
(115) @Maryland W 34-15
(196) Texas Southern W 36-0
(18) Pittsbugh L 24-17
(144) @Army W 27-10

USF

(187) Wofford W 40-7
(178) @Western Kentucky W 35-13
(212) Charleston Southern 59-0
(44) @Florida State W 17-7
(100) @Syracuse W 34-20
(8) Cincinnati L 34-17
(18) @Pittsburgh L 41-14

Rutgers and USF have played fairly comparable schedules up to this point. Rutgers had the worse loss to Cincy, but keep in mind that Tony Pike missed most of the second half of that game, and that Dom Natale’s turnover meltdown sent the opener out of hand. In comparison, Rutgers looked far, far more competitive against Pitt. Based on the more-recent history, Rutgers is the better team right now.

As far as I can tell, what’s really skewing the Sagarin ratings are the fact that FSU is ranked much more highly than Maryland is. However, I’m not that sure if there’s that much of a wide gulf between the teams. Maryland narrowly lost to MTSU, while FSU pulled away from Jacksonville State late. A few bounces here and there, and both games turn on their heads. At some point, there is a lower boundary or floor with poor teams. Alabama would beat #80 about as bad as #200.

The purpose of this post isn’t to rail against computer rating systems. I think that they’re actually far more accurate than human polls, even if each still has its own particular blend of oddities and eccentricities. By the end of the season, with the benefit of a larger, more accurate sample size, everything should look a lot more intuitive. However, these current results are very difficult to square with what’s actually going on in games at the moment. USF may have the better resume to this point, but they’re not 32 rankings and 7 points on a neutral field better.

Which is, not to single out USF, although I love picking on their program at times. At the moment, all human and computer polls have their share of strange, unintuitive results. We’ll just have to wait until the end of the season, and see how everything plays out to know where exactly the chips fall.

The UConn Q&A

Sometimes, these are a little boring. Not today. I thought I was the champ when it came to wordiness and sheer levels of excruciating detail for blog question and answer sessions, but I appear to have met my match with an appearance by Kevin, from, where else, The UConn Blog. Topics discussed below include how exactly Randy Edsall does go about selling his soul to the devil, UConn’s sudden discovery of the forward pass, why Geno is (ugh) actually outsmarting us all, and why fans of teams like the Knicks, Rangers, and Notre Dame need to be marched off to the Soylent Green factories.

Enjoy, and look for the second have on their site shortly, where I dismiss Rutgers fans as a bunch of impatient whiners, apologize once again for Joe Martinek, expound on rivalries and such things, reminisce about THE MIGHTY WHALE, make weird, wikipedia citing analogies, all sorts of illegal activities, and call for the sweet release of two hundred tons of plutonium, in order to town a local town into a wide-area glass parking lot. In my book, it’ll still be an upgrade.

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It’s morbid that this is relevant, but as far as on field production goes, how do the Huskies replace Jasper Howard going forward? Dr. Saturday tweeted over the weekend about how that question was sort of the 800-lb gorilla in the room for West Virginia, even though Noel Devine ended up being the star on the day.

Yeah, it’s uncomfortable because nobody wants to be the guy worrying about football implications when a 20-year-old father-to-be gets killed. But it’s going to be difficult to replace him on the field, obviously. Jazz was such a heads-up player and a top-quality athlete, and this season he was really beginning to blossom as a potential NFL prospect.

But even with him, Louisville and Pittsburgh were able to pass on the full-strength UConn secondary. Without Howard, UConn has to start untested freshman Blidi Wreh-Wilson and the four backups at corner and safety are sophomores and freshman. I don’t know that UConn can replace Howard this year.

I remember that Doc Saturday tweet – something about gameplanning around UConn’s secondary being the worst job in the world? Well, I agree, but you wouldn’t be doing your job as a coordinator otherwise. Other teams are just going to have to live with that on their conscience and try and throw for 350 yards. It’s the best way to attack UConn’s defense right now (unless you have Noel Devine).

Youth

Much has been made of RU’s inexperience on offense this season, and for good reason. True freshmen start at quarterback and wide receiver, and redshirt freshmen start at tight end and defensive tackle. Five sophomores are in the starting lineup too. Surely, this is the reason why Rutgers has looked so out of sync on offense to this point, right?

I think it is a big deal that so much of the inexperience is concentrated on offense, but I’m wondering exactly how unique of a situation the team is in at the moment. Take this week’s opponent, UConn. They start freshmen at guard and tight end. There’s a redshirt freshman at one safety spot, and another freshman is starting at DE, because their projected starter was dismissed from the team during fall camp. That’s before you even take into account how they’ll have to throw another freshman into the starting lineup at CB.

Attrition happens. I don’t think it’s fair to give 100% of the blame to Greg Schiano and staff for the inexperience on offense. They likely did make mistakes at points, but some of those factors were out of their control. UConn is dealing with the exact same depth issues at the moment. Our issues are exacerbated by starting a true freshman at such a critical spot under center.

It might be that these are two of the younger teams in the conference however. Looking at West Virginia’s roster for last Saturday’s game, they do seem to have a bit more experienced depth than the Huskies. As far as I could tell, Pitt was just loaded with talented upperclassmen too. At some point, when I have the time, it’d probably be worth looking at each Big East roster, if not a lot of them around the country, to see exactly where Rutgers compares when it comes to inexperience.

There are other factors to take into account – is it better to have a three year starter who’s a true junior, or a fifth year senior who’s never played a down? What about looking at a full two-deep, as opposed to just starting lineups? I also wonder whether there’s an appreciable difference between having a true freshman starter, and one who has redshirted. There has been some debate in the user comments here lately about whether Coach Schiano should be more cautious in burning redshirts. Anyway, may be worth pursuing down the line.